The term “longshot” is widely used to describe an unlikely outcome in various scenarios, from business ventures to sports competitions.
In the world of sports betting, a “longshot” refers to an underdog a bet with a very low probability of winning, often accompanied by enticing high odds that promise a big payout.
This concept forms an integral part of sports betting, appealing to those who seek thrilling rewards despite the risks involved.
Every sports competition generally features favorites and underdogs, easily identifiable by their odds.
The favorite, more likely to win, carries shorter odds, meaning smaller payouts, while the underdog or longshot comes with longer odds, indicating a slim chance but a larger potential reward.
This dynamic creates an interesting dilemma for bettors: should one bet on the favorite for a likely but modest win, or on the longshot, where the risk is high but the payoff could be huge?
The Appeal and Risks of Longshot Betting
Longshot betting can be both exciting and challenging.
For instance, in a typical NBA matchup, the odds might not differ greatly between the two teams, especially if both have shown similar recent performance levels.
But in cases where the teams are clearly mismatched, such as when a top-tier team faces an underdog, the longshot odds can become significantly high.
Consider a Premier League game where Manchester City, a strong title contender, faces Fulham, a team struggling to avoid relegation.
The longshot odds for a Fulham win might be as high as 21.0 (20/1), showcasing their low probability of victory.
Longshot bets are not limited to any single sport. Horse racing is one of the most famous arenas for longshot betting.
Every racing event features certain horses considered unlikely to win, but history has shown that upsets can and do occur.
Notable longshots like Leicester City’s shocking Premier League victory at 2000/1 odds, or Buster Douglas’s legendary knockout of heavyweight champion Mike Tyson at 42/1 odds, are now iconic examples of successful longshot bets.
These wins remind us that while longshot bets are risky, they can sometimes yield life-changing payouts.
Despite the potential for massive rewards, betting on longshots as a consistent strategy is extremely risky.
There’s a reason a team, horse, or player is designated as a longshot—they are usually at a considerable disadvantage.
Statistics and studies reinforce this risk, showing that the odds are often disproportionately shorter on longshots than they should be, compared to favorites.
The Favorite-Longshot Bias in Betting
Research in the betting world has uncovered a phenomenon known as the “favorite-longshot bias,” which reveals that bookmakers tend to offer shorter odds on longshots and comparatively fairer odds on favorites.
This bias means that betting on longshots is generally less favorable than it may seem.
According to a study published in The Economic Journal by David Paton and Leighton Vaughan Williams, which examined 481 horse races, bettors who wagered on favorites (with odds of 2.0 or lower) experienced average losses of around 7%.
Meanwhile, those betting on extreme longshots (with odds of 41.0 and higher) faced losses as steep as 40%.
This study underscores the inherent disadvantage in consistently betting on longshots, as the odds offered are often skewed to favor the bookmaker.
Should You Bet on Longshots?
For many bettors, the allure of a high-stakes win is undeniable.
Longshot betting is best approached as a novelty or occasional thrill rather than a long-term strategy.
Given the higher risks and the favorite-longshot bias, experts generally advise caution when betting on longshots.
It’s wise to treat longshot bets as a fun opportunity rather than a reliable path to profit.
Casual bettors might enjoy placing a small wager on a longshot for excitement without expecting consistent returns.
Iconic Longshot Wins in Sports History
While the odds are usually stacked against longshots, there are instances in sports history where they defied expectations and clinched improbable victories.
Here are a few examples:
- Leicester City Wins the Premier League (2015-16 Season) Leicester City, initially rated as 2000/1 underdogs, stunned the sports world by winning the Premier League title. Their success captivated fans globally and showcased how longshot victories can become legendary in the world of sports.
- Buster Douglas Defeats Mike Tyson (1990) Known as one of the biggest upsets in boxing history, James “Buster” Douglas defeated the seemingly unbeatable heavyweight champion Mike Tyson, with Douglas carrying odds of 42/1. This victory shocked the boxing community and remains a famous moment in sports history.
- St. Louis Cardinals Win the 2011 World Series The St. Louis Cardinals, with preseason odds of 300/1, claimed the 2011 World Series title. Their win was both surprising and inspiring, reminding fans and bettors alike of the potential hidden in longshot teams.
- Mine That Bird Wins the 2009 Kentucky Derby Mine That Bird, considered a longshot at 50/1 odds, won the Kentucky Derby in spectacular fashion. The horse’s victory was a thrilling moment in horse racing, demonstrating that even the least-favored contenders can sometimes rise to the occasion.
- U.S. Men’s Ice Hockey Wins Olympic Gold (1980) The U.S. men’s ice hockey team, with odds of 1000/1, defeated the highly favored Soviet Union team to win the gold medal at the 1980 Winter Olympics. This “Miracle on Ice” remains one of the most celebrated moments in sports and an example of a longshot triumph.
Tips for Betting on Longshots
If you’re tempted to place a bet on a longshot, here are some strategies to consider:
- Research the Underdog: Look into the recent performance, injuries, and overall condition of the team or player. Occasionally, underdogs have specific strengths that may give them a fighting chance in particular matchups.
- Consider Small Wagers: Because longshot bets carry high risks, it’s usually wise to wager only a small amount, keeping the bet more about fun than a serious attempt at profit.
- Focus on Value: Sometimes, the odds on a longshot don’t fully reflect their chances. In rare cases, a longshot may have a higher probability of success than indicated by the odds, making it a “value bet.”
- Avoid Consistent Longshot Betting: Due to the favorite-longshot bias, placing regular bets on longshots is not financially sustainable. Instead, view longshot betting as a novelty.
- Set Limits: Determine how much you’re willing to lose and stick to that limit. It’s easy to be drawn into betting more on enticing odds, but longshot betting should be treated with caution.
The Role of Longshot Bets in Modern Betting
Longshots add excitement and variety to the betting world.
While most bettors know the high risks associated with these wagers, the potential rewards remain appealing.
In addition, sports betting platforms and bookmakers are increasingly showcasing odds on longshots to attract attention.
With stories like Leicester City’s Premier League win or Buster Douglas’s knockout victory over Tyson, longshot bets hold a unique place in the betting culture, creating memorable moments that fans talk about for years.
Longshot betting also plays a significant role in making sports more engaging for fans.
Spectators often root for underdogs, adding drama and intrigue to sporting events.
The stories of improbable victories serve as reminders of sports’ unpredictable nature, where a team or player once counted out can unexpectedly rise to glory.
Conclusion: Weighing the Thrills and Risks of Longshot Betting
While longshot betting brings a thrilling dimension to sports betting, it is essential to approach it with realistic expectations.
Betting on longshots should be seen as a recreational pursuit, reserved for occasional fun rather than relied upon as a profit strategy.
The high risks, combined with the favorite-longshot bias, make consistent longshot betting financially unsustainable.
However, when approached responsibly, betting on longshots can lead to unforgettable experiences.
Iconic longshot victories remind us of the excitement and unpredictability of sports.
They capture the magic that keeps fans coming back, even when the odds seem impossible.
Whether it’s for the love of the game or the thrill of a big payoff, longshot betting holds a special place in the hearts of fans and bettors alike, standing as a testament to the unpredictable, inspiring, and thrilling world of sports.
